Market sizing
The same market built top-down from population and bottom-up from outlets, then reconciled into a serviceable opportunity.
Top-down market ($mm)
$815
Bottom-up market ($mm)
$806
Top-down / bottom-up
1.0x
Midpoint ($mm)
$811
Revenue opportunity ($mm)
$65
The download carries your own inputs, keeps every formula live and colours inputs blue exactly like the template. The share link reopens this page with your assumptions in place.
Click any highlighted cell to change an assumption. Black cells are formulas — you can retype those too, using Excel syntax such as =B5*(1+B6).
| A | B | C | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market sizing model | ||
| 2 | Top-down and bottom-up on one page. If they disagree by more than about 2x, an assumption is wrong. | ||
| 3 | – | – | – |
| 4 | Top-down | – | – |
| 5 | Population (mm) | 10.5 | – |
| 6 | Share in target age band | 42.0% | – |
| 7 | Penetration (own the product) | 55.0% | – |
| 8 | Units per owner per year | 1.4 | – |
| 9 | Average price ($) | $240 | – |
| 10 | Target customers (mm) | 2.4 | – |
| 11 | Units per year (mm) | 3.4 | – |
| 12 | Market size ($mm) | $815 | – |
| 13 | – | – | – |
| 14 | – | – | – |
| 15 | Bottom-up | – | – |
| 16 | Outlets in market | 5,600 | – |
| 17 | Units per outlet per week | 12.0 | – |
| 18 | Weeks open per year | 50 | – |
| 19 | Average price ($) | $240 | – |
| 20 | Units per year (mm) | 3.4 | – |
| 21 | Market size ($mm) | $806 | – |
| 22 | – | – | – |
| 23 | – | – | – |
| 24 | Reconciliation | – | – |
| 25 | Top-down / bottom-up | 1.0x | – |
| 26 | Midpoint estimate ($mm) | $811 | – |
| 27 | Serviceable share you could win | 8.0% | – |
| 28 | Revenue opportunity ($mm) | $65 | – |
| 29 | – | – | – |
| 30 | Round aggressively out loud; keep the exact arithmetic here. | ||
Drills on this model
Answer out loud first, then change the cell and see how close you were.
- 1.Halve penetration and double units per owner. Why does the market barely move, and which assumption would you actually defend?
- 2.Push the two methods more than 2x apart, then find the assumption that reconciles them.
- 3.Re-do the top-down for a market of 68 million people. Estimate the answer out loud first, then check it here.
- 4.At an 8% serviceable share, how many outlets would you need to serve it at current throughput?