Finance track

Finance · Phase 5

Portfolio Theory

Diversification, the efficient frontier, CAPM and factor models.

In plain English

Do not put everything in one place. If two investments do not move in lockstep, holding both makes the ride smoother without giving up much return.

The advanced view

Portfolio variance is a quadratic form in the covariance matrix, so risk is dominated by covariances rather than individual variances once you hold more than a handful of assets. That leaves systematic risk as the only compensated risk, giving CAPM's beta, and the tangency portfolio plus the risk-free asset as the efficient set (two-fund separation).

Markowitz showed that risk is a portfolio property, not an asset property. Combining assets with correlations below 1 reduces variance without giving up expected return — the only free lunch in finance. The efficient frontier is the set of portfolios with maximum return for each level of risk; adding a risk-free asset produces the capital market line and the tangency portfolio.

σp² = w1²σ1² + w2²σ2² + 2w1w2ρσ1σ2
Sharpe = (Rp − Rf) / σp
CAPM: E(Ri) = Rf + βi × (Rm − Rf)
βi = Cov(Ri, Rm) / Var(Rm)

CAPM says only systematic risk is compensated because idiosyncratic risk is diversifiable. Empirically it explains less than it should, which is why factor models dominate practice: Fama–French three-factor adds size (SMB) and value (HML), Carhart adds momentum, and the five-factor version adds profitability and investment. These are what practitioners use for attribution and risk decomposition.

Essential vocabulary

Systematic risk
Market-wide risk that cannot be diversified away. Measured by beta.
Idiosyncratic risk
Company-specific risk — a recall, a CEO departure. Diversifiable.
Alpha (α)
Return above what the factor model predicts. Most funds have negative alpha after fees.
Information ratio
Alpha divided by tracking error. Active skill per unit of active risk.

Intuition

Diversification is free risk reduction, and covariance is where it comes from. Adding an asset that moves differently lowers portfolio volatility even if the asset is individually risky. The market only pays you for the risk you cannot diversify away, which is exactly what beta measures.

Common pitfalls

  • ×Averaging standard deviations instead of combining variances and covariance.
  • ×Assuming correlations are stable — they rise in crises, exactly when diversification is needed.
  • ×Confusing total volatility with systematic risk when setting a cost of equity.

Worked example — two-asset portfolio

Step 1 of 5

  1. 1σ_A = 20%, σ_B = 30%, ρ =

Why it works

Diversification works because variances add slower than expected returns. With n equally weighted assets of variance σ² and average correlation ρ, portfolio variance tends to ρσ² as n grows: the idiosyncratic part is averaged away, the common part is not. That residual is exactly what beta measures and what the market pays you for.

How it is used — two-asset risk in your head

Step 1 of 4

  1. 150/50 split, both σ =

Deeper

Deeper: from the efficient frontier to CAPM

Portfolio variance = w₁²σ₁² + w₂²σ₂² + 2w₁w₂ρσ₁σ₂. Because the cross term uses correlation, combining assets with ρ < 1 lowers risk without lowering expected return. That free lunch traces out the efficient frontier; add a risk-free asset and the best mix is the tangency portfolio, giving the capital market line.

CAPM follows if everyone holds that same tangency portfolio: only non-diversifiable risk is priced, so E(r) = rf + β(E(rm) − rf), with β = cov(i, m) ÷ var(m). Idiosyncratic risk is uncompensated because it can be diversified away for free. Extensions (Fama–French size, value, momentum, quality) exist because empirical returns are not fully explained by β.

Must know cold

  • σp² = w₁²σ₁² + w₂²σ₂² + 2w₁w₂ρσ₁σ₂.
  • β = cov(i, m) ÷ var(m) = ρ × σi ÷ σm.
  • Sharpe = (rp − rf) ÷ σp; the tangency portfolio maximises it.
  • Only systematic risk is compensated; diversifiable risk is not.

Exercises

Try each one on paper before revealing the worked solution.

Exercise 1

Two assets, σ 20% and 30%, equal weights, ρ = 0.2. What is the portfolio volatility, and what if ρ = 1?

Exercise 2

A stock has σ 30%, market σ 18%, ρ 0.6. Compute beta and the CAPM return at rf 3%, ERP 5%.

Figure — the efficient frontier
dominated portfolioscapital market linerisk (σ)expected return

Every dot is a feasible portfolio; the curve is the set with the highest return for each level of risk. Adding a risk-free asset gives the straight capital market line, whose tangency point is the market portfolio — the geometric argument that produces CAPM.

References

  • Bodie, Z., Kane, A. and Marcus, A. J. (2021). Investments. 12th Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York.
  • Berk, J. and DeMarzo, P. (2023) Corporate Finance. 6th Global Edition, Pearson, Harlow.

Statistics glossary for this phase

The terms an interviewer expects you to use precisely — with the pitfall attached to each.

Correlation

Covariance normalised to a −1 to +1 scale.

In finance

Decides how much diversification a portfolio or a business mix actually buys.

Pitfall

×Assuming it is stable — correlations jump toward 1 in a crisis, exactly when you need them low.

Value at Risk (VaR)

Loss level that is exceeded only with a stated small probability over a horizon.

In finance

Standard risk limit language in banks and treasury functions.

Pitfall

×It says nothing about how bad the tail is beyond the threshold; pair it with expected shortfall.

Sharpe ratio

Excess return per unit of volatility.

In finance

The comparison metric for strategies and funds with different risk levels.

Pitfall

×Comparing Sharpe ratios computed over different periods or frequencies without annualising both.

Beta

Covariance of an asset with the market divided by market variance — a regression slope.

In finance

Feeds the cost of equity in CAPM and therefore every WACC and DCF.

Pitfall

×Using raw historical beta without unlevering and relevering for the target's capital structure.

Practise this

The drills and cases where this phase turns into arithmetic you do out loud.